New Delhi, April 1:Global trade is primed for a strong but uneven recovery, says the World Trade Organization (WTO), forecasting a rise of 8 per cent in world merchandise trade this year.

Prospects for a quick recovery in world trade have improved as merchandise trade expanded more rapidly than expected in the second half of last year, the WTO said in a statement.

“World merchandise trade volume is expected to increase by 8 per cent in 2021 after falling 5.3 per cent in 2020, a smaller decline than previously estimated,” the WTO said on Wednesday.

“Trade growth should then slow to 4 per cent in 2022, and the effects of pandemic will continue to be felt as this pace of expansion would still leave trade below its pre-pandemic trend,” it added.

However, the relatively positive short-term outlook for global trade is marred by regional disparities, continued weakness in services trade, and lagging vaccination timetables, particularly in poor countries.

It said the COVID-19 pandemic continues to pose the greatest threat to the outlook for trade, as new waves of infection could easily undermine any hoped-for recovery.

“The strong rebound in global trade since the middle of last year has helped soften the blow of the pandemic for people, businesses, and economies,” WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo‑Iweala said.

“Keeping international markets open will be essential for economies to recover from this crisis and a rapid, global and equitable vaccine roll-out is a prerequisite for the strong and sustained recovery we all need.”

She said ramping up production of vaccines will allow businesses and schools to reopen more quickly and help economies get back on their feet.

“But as long as large numbers of people and countries are excluded from sufficient vaccine access, it will stifle growth, and risk reversing the health and economic recovery worldwide.”

The Director-General added that trade through value chains has helped countries access food and essential medical supplies during the crisis.

“Manufacturing vaccines requires inputs from many different countries. One leading COVID-19 vaccine includes 280 components sourced from 19 different countries,” she said.

“Trade restrictions make it harder to ramp up production. The WTO has helped keep trade flowing during the crisis. Now, the international community must leverage the power of trade to expand access to life-saving vaccines.”

Chief Economist Robert Koopman said the WTO projections show a “strong recovery” in Asia for 2021 in terms of exports. “We also see a recovery in imports in Asia.”


According to the WTO estimate, global gross domestic product (GDP) at market exchange rates is expected to increase by 5.1 per cent in 2021, and by 3.8 per cent in 2022, after contracting by 3.8 per cent in 2020.

Falling oil prices led to a 35 per cent contraction in trade in fuels, while travel service were down 63 per cent in 2020, said the world trade regulator.(UNI)