(By Rakesh Agarwal)

The Election Commission of India (ECI) on 8 January 2022 had blown the poll bugle for five State Assemblies Goa, Manipur, Punjab, Uttarakhand, and Uttar Pradesh and announced polling schedule for these states.  The first phase of polling will commence on 10 February and counting of votes will take place on 10 March. Uttar Pradesh (UP) is the first State, which will go to the polls on          10 February. Polling for all 403 Assembly seats in the State would be over with the seventh and last phase on 7 March. The ECI had banned all roadshows, padayatra, cycle or bike rallies, vehicle rallies, and processions as well as physical rallies would be allowed till January 31 in view of the Corona/Omicron threat. The Commission however granted relaxation for physical public meetings of political parties/contesting candidates for Phase 1 from January 28 and from February 1 for Phase 2. The upper limit for the door-to-door campaign is 10. Video vans for publicity were permitted at designated open spaces with Covid restrictions.

Though every State where polling would be held is significant, the stakes are very high in UP. Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is fighting to remain in power, while the opposition mainly the Samajwadi Party (SP) is campaigning very aggressively to return to power. The current election is poised between these two main rivals. SP has succeeded in forging a pre-poll alliance with Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), currently led by Jayant Chaudhary son of Late Ajit Singh. The party was founded by ex-Prime Minister Late Chaudhary Charan Singh and was succeeded by his son Chaudhary Ajit Singh till his death in May 2021. It has a considerable impact on Jat and OBC voters in Western Uttar Pradesh. In 2017, the BJP won 66 seats out of 76 seats from this region, when RLD was its partner. The pre-poll alliance of SP-RLD with 6 other small parties will definitely dent poll prospect for BJP in this region. There are 17% Jats, 32 % Muslims and 30 % OBC in the region and their polarisation for any party will provide an edge. The meeting of Home Minister Amit Shah with sieable number of Jat leaders very recently is testimony to the importance of these votes in the area. The meeting, however, was ridiculed by Jayant Chaudhary claiming it a damp squib. Another interesting factor is the switching over of parties by some big political leaders in the State.  Swami Prasad Maurya, a 5-term MLA and a Cabinet Minister in the present government and big OBC face gave a huge setback to BJP, by resigning from the post and as well as from BJP citing injustice to almost all sections of society by the BJP. He later joined SP with much fanfare in the presence of Akhilesh Yadav. Some of the Bahujan Samaj Patry (BSP) MLAs, an MP and a former Cabinet Minister also joined the SP along with him. Prior to it another big OBC leader Om Prakash Rajbhar also deserted BJP and launched his own party. He is now supporting Akhilesh Yadav. Whereas a 7-time MLA of SP Narendra Singh Yadav resigned from the party and is contesting as an independent candidate. The shot in the arm for the BJP is joining of Doon School product and an ex-Congress Minister RPN Singh and Aparna Singh Yadav, daughter-in-law of Mulayam Singh Yadav. The party has fielded RPN Singh from Padrauna constituency of Eastern UP against Swami Prasad Maurya, who is an SP candidate from there.  AIMIM is contesting on 100 seats in the State, whereas Mayawati has now emerged on the scene after 25 days of lull from the announcement of the poll schedule, though she is not contesting herself. The high octane campaigning is in full swing for first two-phase polling with Prime Minister Narendra Modi along with Amit Shah, Rajnath Singh and other Central Ministers is driving it for the BJP. The State is fully covered with the slogans of the parties: “Soch imandar, kaam damdar — phir ek baar BJP sarkar (Honest thinking, solid work — BJP government once again)”, “UP plus Yogi, Bahut hai Upyogi”. On the other side are “UP ka hai yeh janadesh, aa rahe hain Akhilesh (The people’s mandate in UP is this: Akhilesh is returning to power), BSP “Sarv-samaj ke samman mein, Behen ji maidan mein (For the honour of all sections, Mayawati is in the arena)” and “Ladki hoon, lad sakti hoon (I am a girl, I can fight)” of the Congress. But polling by around 15 crore voters in the State, would be based on caste, religion, unemployment, inflation, law and order, freebies and Corona pandemic. While BJP is reiterating communal riots, mafia and gunda raj during Samajwadi Party government vis-a-vis rule of law, upliftment of women by providing free LPG connection, home for the poor and free ration during its time. The opposition is vocal on unemployment, inflation, Hindutva. The Unlawful Conversion Bill, 2021, Kashi-Vishwanath Temple Corridor and Dharm Sansad are the undercurrent issues. The Minority Commission closed 5000 Madarsas in the State, while Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath in November inaugurated ATS Training Centre at Deoband and also allotted premises for PAC camp at Kairana are also some of the issues which will come in play during polling. The firing on Asaduddin Owaisi’s car near Delhi on 3 February is also being given communal colour. However long claims of the parties may be, the ground reality is that the BJP has so far given ticket to 78 candidates out of 193, against whom one or more criminal case is pending. SP list of 159 candidates contains 70 such names and Congress is at number three with 35 candidates out of its 166 candidates. The SP, BSP and AIMIM are wooing their own caste votes along with Muslims. The SP as of now, seems to have support of Muslim voters along with its own caste. Inclusion of some controversial names viz. Azam Khan from Rampur, Nahid Hasan from Kairana and Rafiq Ansari from Meerut and quite a sizeable number of Muslim candidates in its list is a testimony to its attempt to make inroads into Muslim voters. The Opposition is criticising Yogi Adityanath formula of 80-20 terming it polarisation of 80% Hindu population. Priyanka Gandhi is the only big face for the Congress party in the State, though Rahul Gandhi with other Congress leaders is also in the field. The party is crumbling as veterans are jumping the ship and no party is making an alliance with it. Whatever may be the final result of the election in the State, the BJP is not very comfortable this time as the result of this election will also impact Lok Sabha polls in 2024. Surprisingly, Mayawati may emerge as a key figure after the final tally of the seats in the State. She may play a crucial role in formation of the next government in the State.